Taliban-Pakistan war threatens India’s security, New Delhi must reimagine defence capabilities

Taliban-Pakistan Conflict Threatens India’s Security

Introduction

The year 2024 ended in chaos in Indian society. On Christmas Day, December 25, Pakistani airstrikes hit seven locations in Afghanistan, killing 46 people, including women and children. This was in retaliation for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attack on December 21 in South Waziristan, which killed 16 Pakistani security personnel. In retaliation, the Taliban attacked several locations in Pakistan. The violence escalated on December 29 when a Taliban bombing inside a Ministry killed 10 people, with the Pakistan-controlled Afghan National Resistance Front claiming responsibility. Meanwhile, the Baloch insurgents have added to the chaos by joining the Taliban in their struggle for self-determination.

The army has bombed and attacked Pakistan. According to the Taliban, the army has attacked border posts, killing civilians. This ongoing cycle of violence reflects a complex web of conflicts and power struggles. At its heart is the South Asian conflict, which has been divided into modern-day countries such as India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and China by borders drawn by Britain. For decades, these divisions have fueled territorial disputes rooted in ideology and geopolitics.

The Durand Line Dispute

The border drawn at the time, known as the Durand Line, has been disputed since the creation of Pakistan in 1947. It has divided the Pashtuns and is not recognized by the Afghan government. The divide remains a long-standing grievance that even the Taliban government has yet to acknowledge. Historically, Pakistan has sided with the Afghan Taliban, using the ISI-backed Haqqani Network, a Taliban group, to attack the Pashtun ethnic group, introducing a new threat.

The Rise of the TTP

The TTP was launched as an insurgency against the Taliban, and its aims include disrupting Pakistan’s control of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, imposing Sharia law, and fighting the militant group in Afghanistan. Despite being banned by Pakistan, the TTP continues to exist with the support of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. As relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have continued to deteriorate since 2021, the TTP has established new bases in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to train terrorist fighters, renaming them with names such as the “Pakistan Jihad Movement.”


Baloch Insurgency and Regional Instability

The Baloch Insurgency has further increased regional instability. The Al Majid Brigades’ support for the rebels demonstrates the interdependence of armed groups, allowing them to rebuild. Pakistan’s internal conflict has exposed the limits of its institutions. Years of military support have backfired, dragging the country into the chaotic consequences of its policies.

China’s Role

In arming Pakistan and Bangladesh, there are reports of plans to send 40 J-35 fifth-generation fighter jets to Pakistan. China’s economic drive includes buying ports along the “String of Pearls” and supporting India’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative in neighboring countries (excluding Bhutan). Beijing’s cautious stance against the Taliban stems from security concerns, particularly its attacks on the Islamic State (ISIS-K) in Khorasan province and the East Turkestan group that threatens Xinjiang.

Russia’s Involvement

Taliban-led Afghanistan has developed close ties with its Western allies. The Russian president has openly sided with the Taliban after seizing power in 2021, expressing solidarity to fight Western powers.


Implications for India

Conflict and chaos in South Asia affect the two countries’ borders. The threat has been exacerbated by internal violence in Pakistan, armed conflict in Bangladesh, and a refugee crisis on its border. Moreover, China’s support for Pakistan and efforts to shore up Asia’s weak leadership contradict many of India’s visions of the world.


India’s Strategic Imperatives

India must:

  1. Redesign its Defense Capabilities
    • Modernize the military and strengthen border security.
  2. Enhance Diplomatic Engagement
    • Build diplomatic relations with neighboring countries to resolve security challenges.

Conclusion

The conflict in Pakistan reflects regional divisions in South Asia. As its history of disaster continues, India needs to make decisive decisions to be effective and promote stability. Addressing this vulnerable community requires ideas and solutions, not condemnations or words.

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